Eisenkot Bloc Leads Netanyahu in Final Poll as Israel Votes

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a challenging election day as Israeli voters cast ballots for the first time since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. The race pits the incumbent coalition against an opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. Recent polling indicates a tight contest where neither side holds a clear path to power.

According to the final Channel 12 poll released Friday, the opposition bloc is projected to win 56 seats, while Netanyahu’s coalition is projected to secure 50 seats. The Knesset consists of 120 members, meaning a party or coalition needs 61 seats to form a government. Both blocs fall short of this threshold in the latest data.

Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to capture 22 seats, the highest number for any single party in the election. This result places it ahead of Likud, which is projected to win 19 seats. Likud currently holds 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset, representing a potential drop of 13 seats for the ruling party.

Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is projected to receive 14 seats. The Arab parties are expected to win a combined 16 seats. Most leaders in the opposition bloc have pledged not to form a governing coalition with the Arab parties, citing the political difficulties following the October 7 attacks. This stance leaves the opposition relying on smaller parties to bridge the gap to a majority.

The election is being shaped by issues that emerged from the war. The Israeli Defense Forces is facing a severe manpower crisis after three years of conflict. Voters are also weighing contentious legislation regarding the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men and the establishment of a state commission to investigate the government’s failures on the day of the attack.

Traditional issues, such as the establishment of a Palestinian state, have moved to the background. Most major parties now agree against Palestinian statehood, creating a narrower field of debate. The central question for many voters is whether Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 non-consecutive years, should remain in office. The opposition argues he must be held accountable for the events of October 7.

Voter turnout will determine the number of votes required to enter the Knesset. The electoral threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes. The Taub Center estimates that a party needs 165,635 votes to cross this threshold if turnout matches the 70% rate seen in the 2022 election. As turnout rises, the required vote count increases, making it harder for smaller parties to survive.

Parties such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics are fighting to clear this threshold. Their results could influence the ability of either bloc to form a stable coalition. Approximately 20,000 police officers and volunteers are deployed nationwide to maintain order. Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. local time, and exit polls are expected at 10:00 p.m.